Another big-ice Arctic thaw, say experts

RANDY BOSWELL SEPTEMBER 8, 2010
The Vancouver sun

Arctic Ocean sea ice has experienced another severe meltdown this year, with the approaching end-of-summer minimum representing the third-biggest thaw since satellite monitoring began about 30 years ago.

This year's retreat from a winter maximum of about 15 million square kilometres to a September coverage area of just five million square kilometres also means that the four greatest melts since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s have occurred in the past four years.

In a report released Tuesday, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center described the opening of the Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic islands and the "unusually fast" melting of ice in the Beaufort Sea as highlights of another extensive circumpolar thaw that has all northern nations — including Canada — scrambling to cope with increased Arctic ship traffic and to plan for potential oil and gas development.

"There are claims coming from some communities that the Arctic sea ice is recovering, is getting thicker again," Mark Serreze, director of the Colorado-based centre, told Postmedia News on Wednesday.

"That's simply not the case. It's continuing down in a death spiral."

Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum annual extent in mid-September.

In September 2007, scientists and governments around the world sounded alarms when an extreme meltdown reduced the ice cover from a winter maximum of about 14 million square kilometres to an end-of-summer minimum of just over four million square kilometres.

Since then, summer ice cover has repeatedly fallen below the 30-year average minimum of about seven million square kilometres.

Serreze said this year's retreat offers further evidence of the "overall downward trend" but only tells half the story of the declining Arctic ice cover.

Scientists have also determined that along with the overall shrinkage in ice area, the polar region's oldest and thickest slabs are increasingly being replaced by younger and thinner ice — a phenomenon that's widely expected to result in ice-free Arctic summers in the coming years.

"Every bit of evidence we have says the ice is thinning," said Serreze.

"That means there's less energy needed to melt it out than there used to be."

Sea ice trends, he cautioned, will continue to be affected by natural variations in temperature and wind patterns throughout the circumpolar world.

But Serreze said the overall pattern is unmistakable: "The decline in the extent of ice — the square kilometres — is being attended by a decrease in the volume of ice."

Canada and the four other Arctic Ocean coastal nations — Russia, the U.S., Denmark and Norway — have pledged to co-operate in creating new search-and-rescue and environmental protection regimes to manage increased shipping, tourism and economic development in the melting Arctic.

This summer's stranding of an Arctic adventure cruise ship and a second vessel carrying millions of litres of diesel fuel has underlined the growing risk of a tourism emergency or environmental catastrophe as once-frozen shipping lanes become unlocked in Canada's Far North.

Meanwhile, Canadian and U.S. scientists have been collaborating for the third straight year on mapping the Arctic Ocean seabed north of the Yukon-Alaska border, part of a bid by each country to secure huge new swaths of undersea territory under a UN treaty.

The push for extended continental shelves in the Arctic is considered potentially lucrative because it's estimated that up to one-quarter of the world's untapped oil and gas reserves can be found in the region.

The prospect of offshore petroleum operations in an increasingly accessible Arctic — despite growing environmental concerns fuelled by the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico — continues to shape the Canadian government's northern economic agenda.

© Copyright (c) Postmedia News

Arctic Dispatch: A Thaw in the Arctic Tundra

Researchers at the Toolik Field Station study thermokarst to understand the ecological effects of climate change

• By Christine Dell’Amore
• Smithsonian.com, July 22, 2008

Read more:  

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/arctic-dispatch-10.html#ixzz11sxyHuXR

 

Knee-deep in the muddy shambles of collapsed Alaskan tundra, Elissa Schuett points to the remains of a cavern that she was able stand in last summer. Today, it is gone, gobbled up by the gaping maw known as a a thermokarst that continues to march outward as the land rapidly melts.

Thermokarst failures occur when permafrost—a layer of frozen soil in Earth's polar regions—thaws and becomes unstable. Though the events occur naturally throughout the Arctic, many scientists suspect that rising temperatures in the north are causing more of these features to form. By comparing aerial photographs from 1985 with recent photos, "We can now say with some assurance... that in some locations [there are] between two and five times more of these features now than in the early 1980s," says William Bowden, an aquatic ecologist at the University of Vermont.

That's why Bowden, his research assistant Schuett, and others at Toolik Field Station, a University of Alaska, Fairbanks, research facility 150 miles north of the Arctic Circle in northern Alaska, are studying the impact of thermokarsts on the environment. Their work fits into a long tradition of climate change research at Toolik, which, since its founding in 1975, has provided a pristine laboratory for studying how a warmer world will transform the land and waterways of the Arctic.

Understanding climate and environmental change, according to Norman Marcotte of Canada's Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, is the "burning issue" in Arctic research internationally. Research stations such as Toolik are key in capturing long-term data and exploring issues in the field, he says by e-mail, and Canada has plans to develop an Arctic research station with many of the same elements as Toolik.

Though much of Arctic research has focused on observing the environment, "At Toolik we're able to go deeper into that" and "study what's actually controlling all these processes," says Toolik co-founder John Hobbie, a senior scholar at the Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts.

It's also "the only place in North America where we can see or get an advanced view of how climate change can affect ecosystems," he adds.

And in many ways, climate change has already begun reshaping this dichotomously fragile and hardy land. Between 1966 and 1995, Arctic temperatures increased .7 degrees Celsius per decade, a trend that puts "northern Alaska in the hot seat," says Syndonia Bret-Harte, Toolik's associate science director. The Arctic is warming faster than even the tropical areas of the world: Spring arrives earlier, fall sets in later, and the temperature of the permafrost in many areas, including Toolik, hovers perilously close to the zero-degree Celsius tipping point. That's when the frozen soil that gives the tundra its backbone could crumble away.

New thermokarsts in Alaska could also show how warming may change streams or lakes, since these features often occur near water. When a thermokarst was discovered in 2003 near the Toolik River, Bowden and colleagues found it had dislodged so much sediment into the river that the water turned muddy 40 kilometers downstream. He and his colleagues also reported in June 2008 in the Journal of Geophysical Researchthat ammonium, nitrate, and phosphorus emitted from that collapse will over time "significantly alter the structure and function of the river."

For Bowden and other Toolik researchers, such observations were familiar. Between 1983 and 2004, they saw how drastically phosphorus could restructure a river in an experiment done on the Kuparuk River near Toolik—"the best studied river basin in the whole Arctic," according to Hobbie. In that experiment, scientists added small amounts of phosphorus, a nutrient common in fertilizer and residential and industrial pollution, to the river each summer. After eight years, moss expanded in the river, crowding out other plant species and sparking a growth in certain types of insects. Productivity overall in the river boomed. This investigation may foreshadow what happens when permafrost melts and nutrients are freed into the air and water.

On land, Toolik researchers have also added fertilizer to different types of tundra. In an experiment operating since 1989, Ecosystems Center senior scientist Gaius Shaver has found that on tussock tundra, some deciduous shrubs, such as dwarf birch, can capitalize on the influx of nitrogen and phosphorus by increasing in abundance and reducing species diversity. Toolik scientists are also focused on why the Arctic seems to be greening, Bret-Harte explains. It may be due to more shrubs: About 12,000 years ago when the climate was warmer, shrubs dominated the landscape, she said.

Though these polar shifts may seem isolated from the rest of the world, a melting Arctic could accelerate climate change. Bret-Harte points out that Arctic landmasses—including the boreal forests—hold nearly 40 percent of the world's soil carbon, but make up only one-sixth of Earth's land area. If the carbon locked up in the soil is released by melting permafrost, she says, it could more than double the concentration of carbon dioxide , a major greenhouse gas, in the environment .

Bowden of the University of Vermont believes there is "strong evidence" that trapped carbon and methane could be set free during thermokarst events and contribute to warming. He is seeking funding to investigate how thermokarsts will influence Arctic ecosystems overall. For instance, a thermokarst that causes a spike in sediments in waterways may suffocate plants, clog fish gills, and ultimately set off a cascade of effects all the way up the food web.

"It's not a horror story—it's not like this is not a natural process," Bowden cautions. "But I think there's strong evidence that [human] influences that are some distance away from Arctic are having these secondary effects... which are going to be potentially very important in structuring the way the Arctic landscape looks and behaves in the future."

Read more:

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/arctic-dispatch-10.html#ixzz11sxhxmmP

SELAWIK: Alaska’s Largest River Thaw Slump Still Eroding

El testero de la caída de torres Selawik 70 pies de altura, cayendo constantemente deshielo de sedimentos a la planta baja. Julio de 2010. Foto de Georgina Susan.

Fish and Wild Life Journal

Un gran "bajón" deshielo del permafrost creadas por el fracaso ocurrido en el curso superior del río en el noroeste de Alaska Selawik en 2004. Desde entonces, la caída estacional ha transformado el claro río una vez en un turbio (barro) uno de muchos kilómetros aguas abajo. El más grande de su tipo en Alaska, la caída ha atraído la atención de los geólogos, hidrólogos, biólogos pesqueros, y otros científicos interesados en comprender la dinámica y los impactos de este evento.

En julio, el personal Selawik Refugio acompañó a dos geólogos en investigaciones de campo de la depresión. Por tercer año, el Dr. Benjamin Crosby de Idaho State University seguido documentando los tipos y los mecanismos de crecimiento caída, el carácter de los sedimentos liberados en el río y sus efectos en la función del río, y la posibilidad de características similares en el drenaje. El Dr. Joel Rowland de Los Alamos National Lab iniciado estudios sobre la erosión del Ártico orilla del río y la movilidad de los ríos y en el modelado de fallas landsurface. La caída, sobre todo su testero, sigue activa y ampliar deshielo.

El acceso a la caída de deshielo no es fácil. Un hidroavión cayó fuera de la tripulación de la investigación sobre un lago de la tundra, donde porteábamos sus artes a la orilla del río, montado "doblar" las canoas, y nadó 25 millas en dos días a la caída. Después de 2-3 días de investigaciones sobre el terreno, la tripulación canoed otros 25 kilómetros, deteniéndose en el camino en los sitios de investigación adicional, a continuación, desmontar las embarcaciones y los artes de porteábamos a otro lago tundra de un hidroavión pick-up.

En los últimos 50 años, Alaska se ha calentado a más del doble la tasa del resto de la media de los Estados Unidos. Estas altas temperaturas contribuyen a calentamiento del permafrost, que pueden crear cambios dramáticos en la estabilidad de laderas como de dinámica de los ríos. La caída Selawik deshielo del río presenta una oportunidad poco usual para el estudio de este precursor del cambio climático. La investigación sobre la caída se espera que continúe durante muchos años en el futuro.

End of summer approaches for Arctic sea ice

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for August 2010 was 5.98 million square kilometers (2.31 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.  

National Snow and Ice Data Center

Arctic sea ice generally reaches its annual minimum extent in mid-September. This August, ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, after 2007. On September 3, ice extent dropped below the seasonal minimum for 2009 to become the third lowest in the satellite record.

The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the potential for a circumnavigation of the Arctic Ocean. At least two expeditions are attempting this feat, the Norwegian explorer Borge Ousland and the Peter I yacht from Russia.

Overview of conditions

Average ice extent for August was 5.98 million square kilometers (2.31 million square miles), 1.69 million square kilometers (653,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average, but 620,000 square kilometers (240,000 square miles) above the average for August 2007, the lowest August in the satellite record. Ice extent remained below the 1979 to 2000 average everywhere except in the East Greenland Sea near Svalbard.

The minimum ice extent for the year will probably occur in the next two weeks. NSIDC scientists are closely monitoring conditions and will report the minimum when it occurs. 

Figure 2. The graph above shows daily Arctic sea ice extent as of September 6, 2010, along with daily ice extents for years wtih the four lowest minimum extents. The solid light blue line indicates 2010; orange shows 2009, pink shows 2008; dashed green shows 2007; light green shows 2005; and solid gray indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Conditions in context

At the end of August, ice extent had fallen to the fourth lowest in the satellite record, behind the seasonal minima recorded for 2007, 2008, and 2009. On September 3, ice extent fell below the seasonal minimum for 2009 to claim third lowest on record, with perhaps one to two weeks left in the melt season.

The daily rate of decline for August was 55,000 square kilometers (21,000 square miles) per day, close to the 1979 to 2000 average of 54,000 square kilometers (21,000 square miles).

Figure 3. Monthly August ice extent for 1979 to 2010 shows a decline of 8.9% per decade.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center August 2010 compared to past years Ice extent for August 2010 was the second lowest in the satellite record for the month. The linear rate of decline of August ice extent over the period 1979 to 2010 is now 8.9% per decade.

Figure 4. This map of sea level pressure for August 2010 shows a return of the dipole anomaly, which was present in June but not in July.
—Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA/ESRL PSD
Return of the dipole anomaly

In August, a pattern of higher than average pressure over the northern Beaufort Sea and lower than average pressure over the Siberian side of the Arctic replaced the stormy and cool weather conditions that persisted through July. This atmospheric pattern, known as the dipole anomaly, brought relatively warm southerly winds into the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, where air temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for the month of August. The warmth enhanced melt in the region, and southerly winds contributed to ice loss by pushing the ice edge northward. This pattern is similar to the pattern at the end of the 2007 melt season, but not as pronounced. Air temperatures this August were also 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal over the Barents and Kara Seas.

Figure 5. This image from NASA's MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite on August 25, 2010, shows open water and low-concentration ice in the Beaufort Sea, the region where large amounts of rotten ice were observed last year.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy NASA/GSFC MODIS Rapid Response

Rotten ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas

Last year, Dave Barber, a researcher from the University of Manitoba, reported unusual conditions in the Beaufort Sea with large regions of rotten ice. Satellite imagery from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) sensors suggest similar conditions this year in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, where there are large areas with unconsolidated ice floes and low ice concentration.

 Figure 6. This graph of regional ice loss in the Arctic shows faster than normal ice loss in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, and slower than normal ice loss in the East Siberian Sea and Central Arctic. The map in the bottom left corresponds to the regions plotted across the top of the graph. Colors in the bar graph correspond to August ice loss in different years.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Regional ice loss

The rate of ice loss in the summer varies from region to region depending on local air and ocean temperatures and wind patterns. This August, the decline in ice extent was unusually fast in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea, likely because of the rotten ice that melted out completely. In addition, southerly winds linked to the dipole anomaly pattern brought warmer air into the region and helped push the ice edge northward.

However, the loss rate in the East Siberian Sea and the Central Arctic was slower than any of the past three years, and was also fairly slow (slower than the 1979 to 2000 average rate) in the Laptev and Kara Seas. The reason for slow ice loss in the Kara Sea, however, is that there was already very little ice in that region at the beginning of August. Such year-to-year variations demonstrate the importance of weather conditions in determining regional ice loss.

Figure 3. Monthly August ice extent for 1979 to 2010 shows a decline of 8.9% per decade.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center 

Figure 5. This image from NASA's MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite on August 25, 2010, shows open water and low-concentration ice in the Beaufort Sea, the region where large amounts of rotten ice were observed last year.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy NASA/GSFC MODIS Rapid Response

Regional ice loss

The rate of ice loss in the summer varies from region to region depending on local air and ocean temperatures and wind patterns. This August, the decline in ice extent was unusually fast in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea, likely because of the rotten ice that melted out completely. In addition, southerly winds linked to the dipole anomaly pattern brought warmer air into the region and helped push the ice edge northward.

However, the loss rate in the East Siberian Sea and the Central Arctic was slower than any of the past three years, and was also fairly slow (slower than the 1979 to 2000 average rate) in the Laptev and Kara Seas. The reason for slow ice loss in the Kara Sea, however, is that there was already very little ice in that region at the beginning of August. Such year-to-year variations demonstrate the importance of weather conditions in determining regional ice loss. 

Figure 6. This graph of regional ice loss in the Arctic shows faster than normal ice loss in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, and slower than normal ice loss in the East Siberian Sea and Central Arctic. The map in the bottom left corresponds to the regions plotted across the top of the graph. Colors in the bar graph correspond to August ice loss in different years.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Further Reading

Barber, D. G., Galley, R., Asplin, M. G., De Abreau, R., K. A. Warner, M. Pucko, M. Gupta, S. Prinsenberg, and S. Julien, 2009: Perennial pack ice in the southern Beaufort Sea was not as it appeared in the summer of 2009, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L24501, doi:10.1029/2009GL041434.

For previous analyses, please see the drop-down menu under Archives in the right navigation at the top of this page.

NSIDC scientists provide Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis, with partial support from NASA.

Informe científico internacional: “cambios climáticos abruptos e irreversibles¨

Un informe científico internacional, publicado este jueves, prevé para el mundo un progresivo riesgo de “cambios climáticos abruptos e irreversibles” causados por un calentamiento global más fuerte de lo previsto.

El documento que se extiende por 36 páginas sintetizó más de 1.400 estudios presentados en la conferencia sobre el clima celebrada en marzo en Copenhague; mismo lugar que en diciembre espera recibir a las Naciones Unidas para negociar en dicha reunión un acuerdo que tome el relevo del (próximo a expirar en e 2012), Protocolo de Kyoto.

A seis meses de la conferencia de Copenhague, este informe habla de las previsiones de los expertos en cuanto por ejemplo a: los acontecimientos climáticos extremos; el nivel del mar; el deshielo en el Ártico; la superficie global y la temperatura de los océanos han quedado escasas, y estos se están incrementando significativamente más rápido de lo previsto un par de años atrás, expusieron.

Se plantea entonces en la exposición, que las emisiones de gases con efecto invernadero y otros indicadores climáticos están en o cerca de los límites previstos por el Panel Intergubernamental de la ONU sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC – informe del 2007),  y que la actividad humana es directa parte responsable en contribuir al calentamiento global.

Ahora no solo estamos ante nuestras acciones directas contra el medio, sino contra las consecuencias mismas de nuestras acciones pasadas; grandiosas cantidades de entre otros, el fuerte gas de efecto invernadero, metano, atrapadas durante milenios en la capa subterránea de hielo del Ártico estarían a punto de ser liberadas a la atmosfera, acelerando significativamente el proceso de calentamiento global.

Tambien se encontraría en peligro la capacidad de los oceanos y bosques de absorber naturalemente el CO2 originado por la quema de combustibles fósiles, según lo indica la investigación..

El nuevo informe fue escrito y revisado por muchos de los científicos que estuvierone n la tarea de recopilación del documento del IPCC; y su proposito es llamar a los politicos a dar pasos necesarios y urgentes:

“Una moderación rápida, sostenida y efectiva… es necesaria para evitar el peligroso cambio climático, sea como sea que está definido”; “Una subida de las temperaturas de más de 2 grados dificultará la vida de las sociedades futuras, y es probable que causen mayores trastornos medioambientales y sociales durante y a partir del próximo siglo”, se advirtieron.

Pero según el IPCC, las naciones industrializadas deberán reducir drástica y significativamente sus emisiones de gas de efecto invernadero; y los números propuestos y necesarios, están entre un 20 y un 45% en comparación con los niveles de 1990. De no ser así será difícil, tal vez imposible, revertir el proceso.

“Objetivos más débiles para 2020, incrementan el riesgo de impactos serios, incluyendo la superación de la barrera a partir de la cual las fuerzas naturales empiezan a empujar las temperaturas hacia arriba incluso más rápidamente”.

Los impactos del cambio climático podrían ser peores de lo previsto, y llegar aun más pronto que tarde; por su parte expertos en clima del Instituto Tecnológico de Massachusetts (MIT), hacen cálculos acerca de la cantidad de grados que la temperatura de la Tierra incrementará para el 2010 y en comparación con lo que se predijo por el 2003: ellos diagnostican que a pesar de los grandes esfuerzos que se han hecho para reducir drásticamente la contaminación, la temperatura de la superficie de la Tierra se incrementará más del doble previsto hacia el 2010, en un total de 5,2 grados.

El primer ministro danés, Lars Loekke Rasmussen, ha insitido a los científicos a dar “indicaciones concretas” a los políticos, cuando el informe sea presentado este jueves durante la Cumbre de la Unión Europea (UE) en Bruselas.

Artículos relacionados:

• Según estudio científico, aves migratorias se mueven cada vez más al norte
• Informe postula la irreversibilidad del cambio climático
• Informe advierte sobre la vulnerabilidad del Caribe Insular frente al cambio climático
• Informe de Greenpeace señala el vínculo entre ganadería y deforestación en la Amazonia

Tags: cambio climáticos abruptos, Informe científico internacional

Un cambio climático desastroso puede llegar sin avisar

Pablo Terramo - Posted on 20 February 2010

(vía NeoFronteras.com)

 

Según un estudio los cambios climáticos dramáticos pueden aparecer súbitamente sin que medie ninguna señal de alarma previa y habiéndose cruzado el punto de retorno. Científicos de la Universidad de California en Davis dicen que es más difícil de lo que se creía predecir cuándo se producirá un rápido cambio en los sistemas naturales de la Tierra. Esto representa una preocupación para los científicos que tratan de identificar los momentos claves del cambio que harán que el clima terrestre cambie súbitamente y se produzca un desastre a nivel global.

El ecólogo Alan Hastings dice que muchos científicos están buscando signos de alarma que anuncien cambios súbitos en los ecosistemas naturales en la esperanza de solucionar el problema o prepararse para él. “Nuestro estudio encuentra, desafortunadamente, que el régimen de cambio con potenciales grandes consecuencias puede ocurrir sin aviso ninguno”, dice. “Esto significa que algunos efectos del cambio climático sobre los ecosistemas sólo se pueden ver una vez que los efectos son dramáticos. El retorno del sistema hacia un estado deseable será difícil, si no imposible”.

El estudio de Hastings y Derin B. Wysham se centra en modelos ecológicos, pero sus hallazgos pueden ser aplicables a otros sistemas complejos, especialmente aquellos relacionados con la dinámica humana, como la explotación de recursos pesqueros o la dinámica de los mercados financieros.

Este investigador es uno de los expertos mundiales en el uso de modelos matemáticos para entender los sistemas naturales. Sus actuales estudios van desde la investigación de la dinámica de las poblaciones de salmón y bacalao al modelado de la respuesta de plantas y animales en respuesta al cambio climático global.

La mayoría de los científicos están de acuerdo en que el cambio climático está causando ya efectos medioambientales, tales como cambios en la frecuencia e intensidad en las precipitaciones, sequías, olas de calor, incendios forestales, aumento del nivel del mar, menor suministro de agua en regiones áridas, mayor cantidad de plagas que afectan los cultivos y bosques o expansión de patógenos tropicales que afectan a humanos hacia otras zonas.

Temen que lo peor esté por llegar. El asesor presidencial John Holdren (no implicado en este estudio) afirmó recientemente que los científicos temen los momentos clave de cambio, umbrales más allá de los cuales un aumento pequeño adicional de la temperatura media u otra variable climática dé como resultado un cambio dramático que afecte al sistema climático. Entre estos puntos clave Holdren lista los siguientes: 

- La desaparición completa de hielo del Océano Ártico en verano, que pueda dar lugar a un cambio profundo en la circulación oceánica y patrones climáticos a lo largo de todo el hemisferio Norte.

- La aceleración en la pérdida de hielo en Groenlandia y la Antártida que conduzca a un cambio en el ritmo de aumento del nivel del mar por encima de 2 metros por siglo.

- La acidificación de los océanos debida a la absorción de dióxido de carbono, que produciría una perturbación masiva en las redes de tróficas oceánicas.  

El resultado es alarmante e invita a la reflexión, sobre todo si nos fijamos en la aplicación de este tipo de modelos a los mercados. La explosión en cadena de las burbujas inmobiliarias a lo largo del mundo y el efecto dominó económico que ha hecho caer una economía tras otra sin previo aviso, nos recuerda a aquellos que con modelos similares predecían que en algún momento eso iba a pasar, aunque no pudieran decir exactamente cuándo. A esos físicos y economistas se les hizo el mismo caso que el que se hace a los actuales climatólogos y ecólogos: casi ninguno.

Al igual que la actual crisis ha sorprendido a muchos, el punto de retorno en el clima mundial también pillará por sorpresa a más de uno, que dirá: “¿ahora?, ¿no iba a ser dentro de un siglo?” 

Fuente: NeoFronteras.com (Copyleft) - imagen de "titoalfredo" en Flickr (cc)
Nota de prensa de UC Davis

BP Oil Spill Stalls Gulf Loop Current

Global Consequences if Current Fails to Reorganize

BP Oil Spill Stalls Gulf Loop Current Update #1, 05-August-2010

YOUR OWN WORD  USA
YOWUSA.COM, 01-August-10
 
Updated 02-August-2010

Marshall Masters

Oceanographic satellite data now shows that the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico has stalled as a consequence of the BP oil spill disaster. This according to Dr. Gianluigi Zangari, an Italian theoretical physicist, and major complex and chaotic systems analyst at the Frascati National Laboratories in Italy.

He further notes that the effects of this stall have also begun to spread to the Gulf Stream. This is because the Loop Current is a crucial element of the Gulf Stream itself and why it is commonly referred to as the “main engine” of the Stream.

The concern now, is whether or not natural processes can re-establish the stalled Loop Current. If not, we could begin to see global crop failures as early as 2011.

An Open System in Trouble

The Loop Current is a clockwise flow that extends northward into the Gulf of Mexico and joins the Yucatan Current and the Florida Current to the Gulf Stream.

 

Although at first glance the Loop Current appears confined within the Gulf, scientists define it as an “element of an extremely complex, open system”: as all other “elements” of the so-called “Earth System”, are not separable from the others.
These various “elements” of the Earth System (i.e., atmosphere, landmasses and so forth) are so strongly correlated to one another that at some point, they become indivisible.
Why is this important to all life on the planet? The Gulf Stream is a strong interlinked component of the Earth's global network of ocean conveyor currents, which drive the planet's weather systems.
For this reason, Zangari's concern is that should the Loop Current fail to restart, dire global consequences may ensue as a result of extreme weather changes and many other critical phenomena. The repercussions of which could trigger widespread droughts, floods, crop failures and subsequent global food shortages.
While pundits are certain to trivialize the ramifications of this event, “the real worry” says Zangari, “is that that there is no historical precedent for the sudden replacement of a natural system, with a dysfunctional man-made system. That is, except for the atomic bomb blasts and contamination as a result of nuclear waste and nuclear plant accidents, such as the April 1986, Chernobyl disaster."
In what is now widely regarded by many as “Oil's Chernobyl,” Americans, and particularly Gulf Coast residents are disheartened by a steady stream of bureaucratically bungled responses, which are now proving to be just as a deadly as the initial event itself.
Perhaps even more so, as this toxic brew of incompetence, greed, corruption, oil, Corexit dispersant and other chemicals has unleashed a man-made disaster in the Gulf, with frightful possibilities for the future.

The Corexit Curse

The use of Corexit as a dispersant was first brought to the public's attention during the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill.
A powerful solvent used as a dispersant for oil slicks, public knowledge about the dispersant and its long-term effects is hampered by the proprietary protections of its manufacturer, Nalco Holding Company, which is associated with British Petroleum (BP) and Exxon.
What is known, is that this petroleum-based formula is regarded as being at least four times more toxic to life, than the oil is disperses by many environmentalists.
Approximately 1.8 to 2 million gallons of Corexit have been spayed in the Gulf of Mexico. This is a critical fact as current satellite data of the Gulf feeds, tell Zangari that the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico has clearly stalled. This due to environmental impacts from a man-made introduction of oil, which were then compounded by other agents (Corexit and so on).
Worse yet, these real-time satellite data feeds offers clear evidence to Zangari that a new artificial system has been generated in the Gulf in a remarkably short period of time. It is this new and unnatural system which has changed the viscosity, temperature and salinity of the Gulf's seawater, thereby causing the Loop Current to stall. A system that has existed for millions of years. 

research facility focused on high-energy physics.
However, what makes Dr. Gianluigi Zangari's findings so vital to the common man, is that for over a decade, he has conducted his continuous global analysis climate research, using publicly available data. Unlike the jealously guarded formulas for Corexit, anyone can vet his research without having to run through a gauntlet of corporate lawyers.

Tracking Zangari's Data

Zangari's assessment is based on daily monitoring of real-time data oceanographic satellite public data feeds called “Real-Time Mesoscale Altimetry” from the Jason, Topex/Poseidon, Geosat, Follow-On, ERS-2 and Envisat satellites.

 

These satellite feeds are captured and made publicly available by NASA, NOAA and by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR) at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
These CCAR data maps offer researchers like Zangari a continuous stream of markers for sea and ocean dynamics: surface height, velocity, temperature. A fourth marker that Zangari has found to be especially helpful, are chlorophyll infrared emission maps. This is because they show him real-time changes in the shape of the Gulf Stream. 

In addition to changes in ocean velocity, Zangari is reporting an equally troubling analysis with sea surface temperatures. The data published by Rutgers University is from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data maps. Dr. Zangari re-elaborates and checks these data maps using his own calculus system called SHT (patented in 1999.)
Temperature Comparison - August 2, 2009 / August 2, 2010
(Article Updated on August 2, 2010)

Acknowledgments: Frascati National Laboratories, NOAA and Rutgers University. Analysis by Dr. Gianluigi Zangari (Frascati Labs), July 29, 2010.
Taken altogether, these four oceanographic markers began taking a turn for the worse, shortly after the Deepwater Horizon well explosion on April 20, 2010. This rapid turn of events raised Zangari's concerns about the Gulf's Loop Current, and then on July 28, 2010 the worst case imaginable happened. “The Loop Current 

 

simply stalled,” Zangari noted sadly “and we have no idea if it can reorganize itself, because now we're dealing with troubling unknowns.”

Velocity and Temperature Worries

At present, Admiral Thad Allen is trying to assure Americans that the worst of the disaster has passed and that the oil slicks have disappeared due to natural processes. However the markers from oceanographic satellite feeds Dr. Zangari is studying tell him an entirely different story.

The millions of gallons of Corexit sprayed in the Gulf have given BP and the US government a convenient way to mitigate public concerns by removing the threat from sight. The logic being that since the oil is disappearing, so is the crisis. However, taking oil from the surface and spreading through the water column is not a PR matter. Instead, it has become a convenient way to cover up one massive mistake, with a tragically larger one.

To help understand why, let's assume that what is really happening in the Gulf is not much different from what happens when you shake a bottle of oil and vinegar salad dressing. Leave the bottle on the shelf for a while and the oil and vinegar will naturally separate, each with it's own unique viscosity.

However, when the bottle is shaken the two are mixed. This creates a new, and overall thicker viscosity, hence the dressing pours more slowly. In very simple terms, this is what happened in the Gulf of Mexico, which begs another question. Was the Gulf of Mexico intentionally written off early on, so as to protect the Gulf Stream and America's NATO partners?

Will This Stall Spread Into the Atlantic?

The importance of the Gulf Stream was brought to the forefront in the blockbuster film The Day After Tomorrow (2004) where the Gulf Stream stalled, causing temperatures in New York City to plummet from sweltering to freezing in a matter of hours.

Based on real science, the film showed movie audience how the the Gulf Stream transports warm water from the equatorial regions of the Earth, along American's Eastern seaboard and then across the Atlantic to Northern Europe.

Now, current temperature measurements for the Gulf Stream on the Atlantic Front (from 76 to 47 meridian) now appears to be about 10 degrees Celsius cooler than it was this time last year. Consequently, a direct causality nexus has now been established, between the stall of the Gulf Loop Current and this new temperature drop in the Gulf Stream on the Atlantic Front.

For this reason, the focus of Zangari's research is presently centered on finding signs of a return to the former natural equilibrium of the Gulf. Again, he stresses making predictions (pessimistic or optimistic alike) because “these phenomena are unpredictable because they are ruled by strong non-linearities.”

Nonetheless, we must ponder the question: What does this new nexus portend for our future? To that, Zangari says “we can affirm that this system (the Gulf Stream) is changing in an unpredictable way, which may produce serious consequences on planetary scale.”

BP Oil Spill Stalls Gulf Loop Current Update #1, 05-August-2010